The 10% Impact Analysis
Geothermal Heating & Cooling to Reduce Grid Demand at Scale
Explore the potential grid impact of deploying geothermal heating and cooling (GeoHC) in 10% of U.S. buildings over the next decade.
Utilities Need New Ways to Manage Peak Demand
As electricity demand grows, utilities must meet new loads while maintaining grid reliability and managing the cost of new infrastructure.
Electricity demand is rising
Data centers, manufacturing, heating and cooling, and electric vehicles are adding new loads.
New generation can't meet growing demand fast enough
Meeting peak demand requires investment across generation, storage, transmission and distribution.
Demand-side resources can help
Resources that reduce demand when the grid is most stressed can create capacity while avoiding or deferring infrastructure investment.
What Could 10% Geothermal Deployment Mean?
Geothermal Heating and Cooling Will Reduce Peak Demand at Scale
Geothermal reduces building energy use and lowers peak demand when the grid is most stressed
With geothermal deployed in 1% of U.S. buildings each year (new build and retrofit), the cumulative impact becomes significant
Peak demand reductions accumulate as additional geothermal systems are installed over time
Geothermal unlocks grid capacity, improves utilization, and drives down electrical rates
Projected Electrical Demand in the U.S. (NERC 2026) – with Geothermal
Geothermal could yield 62,000 MW of avoided peak demand by 2035
Geothermal Deployment for Grid Benefits
The grid value of geothermal varies across the country. Local utility peak conditions, weather, building stock and projected growth all influence the potential impact of deployment.
Peak Demand Reduction by 2035
Peak Savings in 2035 by State (MW)
The map shows modeled peak demand savings by state, with darker shading indicating greater potential reductions.
